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Are these Scans and Alerts Ever Late?

  

A person who visited our site wrote to us and said that he did not think he would subscribe to our services because he thought our alerts looked a day old.  If a person comes to this conclusion, it has to be a result of the timing of his visit, or because he missed the first day of one of our 2-day alerts. The idea that our alerts are delayed or late is not correct.  In fact, it is virtually impossible.

Our scans are performed each day after the market closes.  We get the raw data about 2 hours after the close of market (it takes that long for vendors to collect, clean, and otherwise prepare the data for delivery).  After we get it, it takes us about two hours to apply our algorithms to it.  Therefore, if you visit our site before 5 p.m. (four hours after the close of market) you may be looking at yesterday's scan results, though we do sometimes get finished shortly after 4:00 p.m. (three hours after the close of market).

For example, the GAP signal generator of our StockAlerts subscription looks for stocks that have a low price TODAY that is higher than the high price YESTERDAY (plus other conditions have to be satisfied).  It is impossible that the alert will be late because the equations simply do not scan for what happened before today (they specifically look at today's low and cannot look at yesterday's low).  That is, the alert can be triggered by what happened TODAY and only by what happened today.  This is true of all our alerts.  However, a person may conclude that the alerts are slow if he visits the site before 5 p.m. because the alerts posted are probably still for yesterday, and not for today.  All alerts are triggered by conditions that exist TODAY.  There is no way for them to be triggered late (the mathematics will not permit that, and the data we work on is fresh daily).  Also, the alerts are posted on the day they occur.

However, we have programmed a few of our alerts to continue one day after the initial alert is given. As traders, we are sometimes interested in what happens to a stock the day after the initial alert.  For example, if a short-term moving average crossed from below to above a longer-term moving average yesterday, and the short-term moving average is still above the longer-term moving average at the close of market today, the alert will be generated again.  It will be generated the first day of the crossover, and remain a second day only if the short-term moving average is still above the longer-term moving average.  This is intentional on our part, because we sometimes want further verification of the crossover event.  This is not our normal practice, but we do it for a few crossover alerts.  What this means is that if you do not notice the alert on day one, but then notice it on day two, you may think it is a day late.  You just did not take note of the crossover the day it happened.  If there are many alerts and you do not write the interesting ones down, you may see the alert again the next day.  Then, when you look at the chart you may conclude that the alert was a day late because it should have been given yesterday.  In fact, it was given yesterday but you did not take note of it then.  Also, if you visit the site before 5 p.m., you may be looking at yesterday's scan results.  That means you may think the alert is two days late (because the original crossover occurred two days ago) even though it was never late at all.  You would have seen that the alert was generated two days ago if you had looked.  We do this with the Donchian 5x20 dual moving average crossover system and the 5x10x20 triple moving average crossover system in the StockAlerts subscription.

Also, the free scans on the Alerts page were originally programmed to last for more than a day.  Previously, the alerts that appeared there showed stocks that had their 9-day moving average cross their 18-day moving average any time within the last 5 days.  Some visitors have misinterpreted this to mean that the alerts are sometimes 5 days late.  That perception is incorrect and can cause people to underestimate the value of that free list.  Therefore, we have changed the algorithm.  Nevertheless, we want to stress the fact that the alerts were never 5 days late.  Why?  If a stock had a moving average cross 5 days ago, an alert was given 5 days ago, and it was also given every day since (as long as the corssed-over condition persisted) for a maximum of 5 days.  We preferred this approach because it tied in nicely with the way we monitor our stocks, but that is simply a personal matter, and other people have their own way of monitoring stocks.  This scan has now be modified so that it will show alerts only if they occur on the day of the scan.

A person may think that because the market has been closed for two or three hours, the alerts posted are today's alerts.  For most sites, this may be true but it is not true for our site.  Our alerts are not instantly computed as soon as the market closes.  Also, they are not automated downloads.  If they were, they would be the same as those on almost every other Web site.  The algorithms we use are custom-designed and created in-house.  There is no way for us to simply download the alerts from a vendor as most sites do.  The alerts on most sites are "cookie cutter" alerts identical to those found everywhere else on the Internet.  That's because most sites that have alerts download their alerts from the same vendors.  It is true, though, that we will sometimes include common "cookie cutter" formulas in our scans.  For example, the free momentum scan includes a standard 25-day momentum calculation, and the scan on the Alerts page includes a common RSI (Relative Strength Index).  Even though our paid-for scans are unique and created in-house, we might include with them an RSI reading that a person might want to use for additional filtering.   

We do not download any of our alerts.  We have to take the time necessary to sort data, run our algorithms, generate charts and tables, and then post the information for visitors and subscribers.  Look at the number of subscriptions we offer.  It takes time to get it all ready.  This is done by people.  It is not an automated process.  That makes us slower than most sites when it comes to completing our updates.  It is physically impossible for us to get it done an hour or two after the market closes.  Pay attention to the dates posted with the scans.  They will tell you if the alerts are today's or yesterday's.

Most sites do not have the mathematical expertise necessary to create their own algorithms.  That is why they download those anemic "alerts" from vendors.  In fact, the reason we create our algorithms ourselves is precisely because the so-called "alerts" available elsewhere are not acceptable to our own company traders, and because we have the ability to do it.

We are experienced traders who have been trading for many years.  We use our own alerts.  Why on earth would we trade on the basis of old or untimely alerts?  That would be insane.

 

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Costa Mesa, CA 92628 USA.
 
"But thou shalt remember the Lord thy God: for it is he that giveth thee power to get wealth."  Deut. 8:18 .

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