NOTICE: This is a very old market review page. Search engines are not supposed to bring you here. This page has been archived for possible future use and updating. For our current market review, please click on the "Stock Market Review" tab on the left side of your screen (fourth from the top).
The following market review includes the market's signals according to the R.C. Allen triple moving average system. This review also has information on Chaiken's MoneyFlow indicator, the Chande Momentum Oscillator, the Stochastic Oscillator, the MACD, the current Interest rate spread, and information regarding the Market Bias Indicator.
Use the "Directory" to see what else is on this site.Directory
1. A free daily list of the 50 highest-momentum stocks in our database is at Momentum List 2. A free daily list of stocks that just surged at least 2% in price and 50% in volume is at Surges 3. A free daily list of stocks making new highs is at New Highs 4. A free list of the 50 stocks in our database with the greatest volume surge is at Volume Surges 5. Free interactive stock charting is at Charts.
US Naval Observatory Master Clock Time in New York
US Naval Observatory Master Clock Time in California
S&P500 5-Day Intraday Chart
The Dow & Nasdaq 1-Day 5-Minute Intraday Charts
Thursday, May 08, 2014. The Dow finished the day at 16550.97 for a gain of 32.43 points or .20%. The low for the day was 16502.01 (-16.54 points), and the high was 16623 (104.41 points). Stocks closing with a gain numbered 18 and stocks closing with a loss numbered 12 (60.0% were gainers and 40.0% were losers). Today's total volume for the Dow stocks (unweighted) was less than yesterday's volume by -14.4%. Our "Watch List," is made up of the same stocks that are tracked by The Valuator and our "Donchian & R.C. Allen Alerts" scanner. Those 501 stocks, underwent the following changes. The Average Price Change was = -0.23%, Rising Stocks = 204, Falling Stocks = 298, Percent of Stocks Rising = 40.6%, Falling Stocks = 1.46 x Rising Stocks, Average Volume Change = -2.4%. In the table below, we list 6 signal-generating disciplines for each of three major Indexes. Of those, 0 generated a new signal today. Since Indexes have no volume, we will use the average (unweighted) change in volume for the 500 stocks that make up the Index. On average, the volume of the stocks that make up the Index rose 1%.
The Buy and Sell Signals of 6 Systems
If the signal is new, there will be a "◄" at the right of the date. There are two "Donchian" price-channel systems that may be used in tandem. That is, some people use the 1-week system for sell signals and the 4-week (20-day) system for buy signals. Also, some may use the signals of one of the following systems to time entries and exits for their Index-tracking ETFs.
Index "Buy" & "Sell" SignalsUpdated After Close on Thu
Signals of Wilder's Parabolic SAR (Stop-And-Reverse) System
R.C. Allen Signals (4-Day x 9-Day x 18-Day Moving Averages)
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Golden Cross/Death Cross Signals (50-Day x 200-Day MA)
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Daily Chart of The Dow (See Comments Below This Chart) An Analysis of Short-Term Movement
R.C. Allen's three moving averages are included in the charts. The R.C. Allen system stipulates that a signal occurs when the 4-day moving average (green line) is above the 9-day moving average (blue line) and the 9-day moving average crosses above the 18-day moving average (red). The opposite conditions generate a "sell" signal. The latest signal for each chart is posted in the table above the charts. We show the signals of various systems, but we never recommend that you buy or sell anything..
We will be making significant changes to this page either Friday or Saturday. Please give feedback as to whether you like the changes or not. If we remove a feature that you want restored, let us know. The Dow (See the DJIA chart above) did not reach a new intraday high as some news sources have reported. Today's high was 16,623. The high reached on 4/4/14 was 16,631.63. It did reach higher than its closing high, but that has happened several times. It makes for an interesting item for the reporter to fill space, but it was of little consequence. Other than the fact that the Labor Department said that initial jobless claims fell 7.54% (from 345,000 to 319,000), there was no significant economic news today. What other news there was could easily be explained as a consequence of bad weather. The reason the Dow could not stay above "T2" was that there was not enough positive sentiment (traders are a skittish lot, and they want a reason to bid up prices). Without a reason to pay up for stocks, and with stocks under selling pressure from the overhead resistance at "T2," they simply backed away. Even so, the white real body of today's candlestick was higher than yesterday's real body. It is difficult to estimate tomorrow's action. With the weekend looming, it is almost certain that the Dow will not close above "T2," but there should be some activity above 16,551. The interval chart suggests activity may go down to about the 16,469 level, or even lower. We will not have a high probability estimate until tomorrow morning. Comments about the S&P500 Index and the interval Dow charts continue this discussion. We have posted a list of 82 stocks expected to report earnings tomorrow (Friday). The MBI generated a buy signal on 2/24/14 and it registered a positive bias for the market on 2/25/14. Intermediate-term and long-term, it has been in a buy mode since 2/25/14. Short-term, it is also showing a strong positive bias.
Daily Chart of The S&P500 (See Comments Below This Chart)
The S&P500 (See the S&P500 chart above) ) dropped below "K1" intraday, but the combined support from the 50-day moving average, "K1," and the rising purple line turned it around again. The probabilities are a little more favorable for a higher close for this Index than for the Dow, but a higher close is by no means a sure thing. The odds slightly favor a close between today's close and "K2." However, trader psychology just before a weekend, cannot be counted on to follow the probabilities. Another intraday move above "K2" is likely. If the Index does not close above "K2" tomorrow, it is quite probable that it will do so soon. If the Index does have a positive day, it will likely result in a positive day for the Dow.
Now, let's look at the 20-day hourly chart.
20-Day Dow Chart at 1-Hour Intervals & 1-Day at 3-Min Intevals
In the 20-day hourly chart (above left), the opening level is indicated by the solid horizontal red line. Most of the day's action was positive. The Dow jumped, hit its "head" on the ceiling, and fell back to nearly where it started. Today was a non-event. It was not especially positive (though slightly so), and it was not particularly negative. It is just marking time while it waits for a reason to go higher. The overall bias is positive. The status of the market is that it wants to go higher but it lacks the confidence to do so without additional convincing that it is the right thing to do (that it is "safe" to do so). [The cowards!]
Wrap-Up: (Reviewed and modified as needed on Thursday, May 08, 2014) No change here Going forward, our own emphasis will be on the buy side rather than the sell side. We will be looking for stocks that are in a good setup configuration. If you are looking for purchase candidates, do not chase stocks. Look for setups, and wait for "trigger events." [there are illustrations of some setups near the bottom of the "Stock Alerts" page] Even if such stocks have not yet begun to surge, a good setup with a pattern of increasing volume on up moves and decreasing volume on down is often an indication that the stock is preparing to surge upwards. If you buy anything, don't forget to use stop losses.
Indicator Review The Chande Momentum Oscillator went from 2.4397 yesterday to 6.8097 today ("extreme" readings start at ±50, and 0 is neutral). At 50, the up-day momentum is three times the down-day momentum, and the reverse is true for a reading of -50. +60 and -60 are similar to RSI readings of 80 and 20 respectively. Some other comparisons with the RSI might be helpful, since they are both useful in similar ways. The CMO directly measures momentum by using data for both up and down days in its numerator, whereas the RSI uses data for only the up days in its numerator. The CMO employs no smoothing in its calculation, so short-term extremes are not covered by any averaging process. The RSI has built-in smoothing. The CMO scale ranges from -100 to +100 so the direction and value readings are instantly clear and intuitive. The center of the RSI scale is 50 rather than zero. The Stochastic Oscillator went from 66.335 yesterday to 59.595 today. A reading of 70 or more is "overbought" and a reading of 30 or less is "oversold." A cross from above to below 70 is considered by most technicians to be a short-term sell signal. A cross from below to above 30 is considered a short-term buy signal. Chaiken Money Flow declined from 0.167 to 0.1106. CMF readings of more than 20 indicate powerful accumulation and further upside price action. CMF readings of less than -20 indicate powerful distribution and further downside price action. [the chart on this page has a scale that divides these numbers by 100]. The Relative Strength Index went from 54.635 yesterday to 56.003 today. Look for a divergence between the Dow and the RSI. For example, if the Dow rises and the RSI declines, it is a warning that the rise is not to be trusted, and that a decline may be about to occur. The RSI tends to top above 70 and bottom below 30. It usually forms its tops and bottoms before the stock or index on which the RSI is being used. Volume figures are posted in the first paragraph with other market data. Volume surges tend to "endorse" or validate price action. A volume decline on a price move makes that price move untrustworthy. The volume provides a clue to the intensity level of a price move. Volume helps determine the strength of a trend. For example, a strong uptrend should have greater volume on up moves and less volume on down moves. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is useful for both stocks and commodities. It was -23.955 yesterday. It closed at 100.52 today. Look for a divergence between it and its underlying security. If the Dow is making new highs but the CCI is not, for example, then the Dow is likely to undergo a correction. If the CCI is above +100, the underlying security is considered to be overbought. If it is below -100, the underlying security is considered to be oversold. However, there is much more to the CCI than this. Click on the CCI link at the left of your screen for more on the CCI. The "Buying Pressure" component of the Demand Index divided by the "Selling Pressure" component of the Demand Index resulted in a ratio of 3.2954. For example, a ratio of 1.50 means the buying pressure was 50% more than the selling pressure, and .80 means buying pressure was equivalent to only 80% of the selling pressure, or 20% less. The McClellan Oscillator had a reading of -4.2312 yesterday. Today it was -41.0721. McClellan Oscillator readings of ±150 are extreme and tend to correlate well with buying and selling climaxes in the market. The McClellan Oscillator reaches these extreme values, measuring overbought and oversold conditions, in advance of market turns. It then passes through zero at or very soon after market turning points (to put this in perspective, extreme readings occur much less frequently than a pass through zero. McClellan Oscillator passes through zero tend to indicate market reversals at approximately 2 to 6 week intervals). The type of action to be taken, if any, depends on...(There is much more. Please use the "McClellan Oscillator" menu link on the left side of your screen for a more comprehensive explanation and chart). Notes--The numbers indicated above for the previous day's readings may differ from what we reported here the previous day. We do not collect the data at exactly the same time every day and there are often late-day changes. After-market changes occur because some orders are backlogged at the closing bell. The orders were entered before the bell but processed after the bell. For example, one data vendor may report a McClellan Oscillator reading of 7.5 while another reports a reading of 8.02 because the readings were taken at slightly different times, though both may have been taken after the official close.
Wilder's SAR & Two Donchian Systems
The table near the top of this page has the most recent "buy" and "sell" signals for six different disciplines as each of the systems is applied to the Dow, the S&P500, and the Nasdaq. These charts illustrate three popular systems as applied to the Dow. Explanations of the charts are below the charts
The "Wilder's SAR" chart above on the left shows Welles Wilder's Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) system. When a new buy signal occurs, the first red dot appears below the stock's price bars. When a sell signal occurs, the first red dot appears above the price bars. As prices trend up, the rising red dots below the price tend to accelerate upwards. The same thing occurs in a downtrend (except that the dots are above the price bars, and they accelerate downwards). When the price bar declines below the highest of the rising red dots, a sell signal occurs. When the price bar rises above the lowest of the declining red dots, a buy signal occurs. The system, designed for short-term traders, is very sensitive (it reacts to relatively small moves). A drawback of the system is that it tends to whipsaw during non-trending markets. However, it works well when the market is trending. The system is designed for active traders. Many short-term traders, therefore, use the system for trading individual stocks. The red dots are sometimes used as buying and selling indicators. Sometimes they are used only as reference points for placing stop losses. Here, the system is used as a bullish/bearish indicator for the market.
The "Donchian 5 X 20 System" chart shows the Donchian (5x20) dual moving average crossover system. The red line is the 20-day moving average. The blue line is the 5-day moving average. If the blue line moves from below to above the red line, it is a bullish signal. If the blue line moves from above to below the red line, it is a bearish signal.
The chart on the far right shows Donchian's standard 4-week rule. It can be used in combination with the 1-week rule near the top of the page (one of the 6 signal generators in the table). In such a combination, the 1-week channel system could be used for sell signals. It sells much earlier when a downtrend begins. The 4-week rule could be used for buy signals. The four-week system was originally intended to be a complete system in its own right. Its rules are as follows. You cover short positions and buy long when the price moves above the highs of the four previous weeks (20 trading days), and you sell long positions and sell short if the price falls below the four previous weeks. Of course, you do not have to go short. You can simply buy and sell instead. The highs and lows of the previous 20 days are marked with red channel lines for easy reference.
The three systems illustrated here (the SAR, the 5 X 20 system, and the 4-week channel) do not necessarily give identical signals at the same time. They are very different approaches to the timing of bullish and bearish positioning. Many traders use these systems to time their buying and selling of individual stocks. We use them here as bullish/bearish indicators for the market. A persom might, if deemed appropriate, lighten up on positions when one of these systems turns bearish and become more aggressive when it turns bullish. Some people might use the "buy" and "sell" signals at the top of this page to time the purchases and sales of ETFs that track the Dow, S&P500, or Nasdaq. [The reader must not interpret any comments made on this Web site to be personal investment buy, sell, or hold recommendations. Comments are generic and are intended only to illustrate concepts.]
Indexes & Measurements Updated Thu p.m. After Close
Y TSY YLD NDX
NASDAQ NMS COMPOSITE INDEX
30 Y TSY YLD NDX
NASDAQ TOTAL VOLUME
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE ADVANCES
ARCA PHARM INDEX
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE DECLINES
CBOE MKT VOLATILITY
RATIO OF ADVANCES TO DECLINES
DJ COMP AVERAGE
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE NEW HIGHS
DOW JONES INDU
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE NEW LOWS
DOW JONES UTIL
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE UNCHANGED
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE VOLUME
GOLD BASE PRICE
NYSE ARCA TECH 100 INDEX
NAS COMPUTER NDX
NASDAQ 100 INDEX
NYSE MARKET DIARY ISSUES TRADED
NASDAQ MARKET DIARY
S&P 100 INDEX
NASDAQ MARKET DIARY
S&P 400 INDEX
NASDAQ MARKET DIARY
S&P 500 INDEX
NASDAQ MARKET DIARY
SILVER BASE PRICE HANDY&HARMAN
NASDAQ MARKET DIARY
NASDAQ MARKET DIARY
TLR SHORT TERM
Oscillator for NYSE Composite
Oscillator for Dow Industrials
Oscillator for the S&P500 Index
Chaiken Money Flow for the Dow
Oscillator for the Dow
The CCI for the NYSE Composite
Oscillator for NYSE Composite
The CCI for the Dow Industrials
Wilder's SAR for
Wilder's SAR for the NYSE Composite
Market Review Indicator Chart
Traders and investors are advised to make frequent reference to the following explanations until the meanings of the charts are immediately apparent with only a glance. At the beginning of the day, make it a regular practice to perform a market review by checking the status of each indicator. At some times the charts evolve slowly. Even when the charts are changing very slowly from one day to the next, however, the daily review will help "anchor" in your mind the market environment and the general context for your trading/investing decisions. A daily review will also help you to become sensitive to evolving market "setups" and signals. There are times when one or more charts will alert the careful observer to a significant change in the market that calls for a change in approach. Also, the charts do not always evolve slowly. The point we are making bears emphasis. You should always develop your strategy for the day only after evaluating the general status of the market and the context it gives for any trading plans you may devise. These charts are updated daily.
NOTICE--Originally, we presented each of the following 6 charts (with its explanation) in isolation from the other charts. However, we have decided to try a new approach that we think might enhance overall comprehension. Instead of showing each chart separately, we now show the following 6 charts simultaneously. That way, you won't have to spend a lot of time scrolling up and down to figure out how the charts counter or reinforce each other. Each of the charts is labeled (Chart 1, Chart 2, and so on). The label for each chart is in a blue box near the bottom left corner of the chart. Below the six charts there is a set of links, each one of which will take you to a discussion of one of the charts. Each discussion includes two links back to the charts. For example, the label at the beginning of each discussion ("Chart 1," etc.) is a link back to the charts. At the end of each discussion is another link back to the charts. We provide two links back to the charts because some of the discussions are lengthy, and we want to make it easy for you to navigate back and forth quickly. Previously each chart was viewed in isolation. It was not possible to see them all at the same time. This way, a click will take you to an explanation, and a click will take you back to a view of all the charts. This should make it easier for you to get a sense of the overall status of the market
Chart 1- Interest Rate Spread. This chart shows the pattern of change in the Interest Rate Spread over recent months. The last reading (multiplied by 10) is inserted in the scale on the right of the chart in blue. Simply move the decimal point one place to the left to get the current reading. When the spread between short-term rates and long-term rates is +1.3% to +2% (short-term lower than long-term), the economy is thought to be in for a normal growth rate in the vicinity of 2% to 3%. If the difference is more than that, it is probably because the the Central Bank is making money more easily available and the economy will likely undergo accelerated growth. When companies can get cheap money, they can more easily afford to invest in projects, facilities, and equipment that will expand business or improve operations. If the interest rate spread is negative (short-term money more expensive than long-term money, then money is being made more difficult to obtain by the Central Banks (they are attempting to reduce the rate of inflation). This will, of course, slow down the amount of capital investment made by companies. Economic expansion will be mitigated. If the spread is a negative 1.5% (or even more), then the probability is 70% that economic recession will occur within a year. This information can be the basis for some general guidelines. If the spread is negative, make stop losses hug price action more snugly and use other techniques you may be aware of to guard or enhance assets in the event of market decline. If they are enough higher that the interest rate spread is -1% or more, cash might be your best option. The line in the chart shows a history of the spread between the yield of short-term (13-week) treasuries and the yield of long-term (10-year treasury bonds. The actual current yields of each of these is posted in the data table. If this chart indicates that the current spread is .76, then the current spread is a little more than ¾ of 1%. The fact that the number is positive (the line is above zero) means the long-term rates are greater than the short-term rates. If the number is negative (the line is below zero) it means the short-term rates are greater than the long-term rates. a.) If the spread is negative, tighten stops or take other protective measures. b.) If short-term rates are 1% or more higher than long-term rates, cash might be a more appropriate investment (Remember that the bear market that began in 2000 started under these conditions). c.) When the spread between short-term and long-term money is less than 1%, higher-quality growth stocks are better candidates. d.) When short-term money costs 1% to 3% less than long-term money, stocks are generally even more likely to be profitable. A greater variety of stocks will advance in valuations. e.) If the spread is more than 3%, assume that inflation is just around the corner. Return to the six charts. Back to Charts
Chart 2- Relative Volatility Index (RVI) was created by Donald Dorsey to measure the direction of volatility. It resembles the RSI, except that the standard deviation of daily price changes replaces absolute price changes in its computation. The idea behind its development was to create a truly independent confirming indicator to use with the usual trend-following indicators instead of creating another indicator that simply rehashes the same data in a different way (resulting in the same data confirming itself). Dorsey's rules were as follows.
1. Act on buy signals only when the RVI is >50
2. Act on sell signals only when the RVI is <50
3. If you ignore a buy signal, enter long if RVI is >60
4. If you ignore a sell signal, enter short if RVI is <40
5. Eliminate a long position if the RVI falls below 40 6. Eliminate a short position if the RVI climbs above 60 The RVI calculated here is based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is included here as a means of confirming (or not) other market indicators. Back to Charts Chart 3- Market Bias Indicator. The MBI is useful in evaluating the general status of the market and the nature of any investment strategy shifts that may be necessary to adjust to the prevailing market environment. For example, when the market has a negative bias (as shown by the Market Bias Indicator), it might be wise to move to cash, switch to a fund that goes up while the market goes down, place stop-loss orders on all positions, or to be extra cautious about taking new positions. When the Market Bias Indicator "says" the market is favoring buyers, it is not as likely to punish investor aggressiveness (equity growth is expected). If the black line of the Market Bias Indicator (the indicator line) is above the horizontal line, we believe the market is favoring buyers. Here, the Market Bias Indicator is "bullish" (it is probably okay to hold our positions or to take new ones). In this market environment, ignore the broken red line unless you are an aggressive trader. If you are an aggressive trader, while the black line is in "positive territory," a move above (or below) the red broken line is a buy (or sell) signal respectively. A rising (or falling) green line must confirm either of these signals before action is taken. The green line is the "confirmation-line" of the indicator. If the black line falls below the horizontal line, we believe the market is favoring sellers. That is, extra caution is in order. The Market Bias Indicator (MBI) suggests a "sale attitude" only if the green line is declining while the black line is in "negative territory" (below the horizontal line). While the black line is in "negative territory," a move above (or below) the red broken line is a buy (or sell) signal respectively. Again, a rising (or falling) green line must confirm either of these signals before action is taken. The green line will shift its position over time (appearing higher or lower relative to the other lines and the horizontal line). However, the shape of the green line will not change. The relative placement of this line is not relevant. Only its direction is important. The Market Bias Indicator is sensitive enough to have given a "sell signal" two days before the meltdown in 1987, yet it avoids whipsaws better than most indicators. While there are numbers that determine line placement in this chart, this indicator was intended from the beginning to be a visual indicator only. The story is told by position above or below the horizontal line, not by the exact numbers for the distances. It does not add any more useful information to know that one day it is 25 points above the line and the next day it is 15 points above the line. We can visually determine that it is closer to the line and estimate its rate of approach. The same thing applies to each of the lines in the indicator. Which ones are above or below which others and which direction are they headed are the important issues rather than the quantitative readings for each. We want people to be able to glance at the chart and see a "picture" that tells them all they need to know. We do not even look at the numbers ourselves when we use the indicator. If we ever decide to place the indicator in the public domain, it will be necessary to divulge the equations used and the data needed. However, the indicator is available nowhere else on the planet, and that serves our purpose at this time. Systems and strategies tend to lose their power when they are widely disseminated.All indicators, including this one, should be used in conjunction with other methods of analysis. Bear in mind that an MBI buy or sell signal is not necessarily a buy or sell signal for individual stocks in your portfolio. These signals are merely indicators of market bias. Individual stocks should always be bought or sold on the basis of their own merit or lack thereof. Return to the six charts. Back to Charts Chart 4- Stochastic Oscillator & Chande Momentum Oscillator. The reference for these charts is the NYSE Composite Index. This Index includes all stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. At the top of the chart you will see the Stochastic Oscillator, a short-term indicator. It can be helpful in estimating when a security (or index) is likely to change its direction in the near future. Most technicians consider it a "buy" signal when the Stochastic Oscillator falls below 20 (a few technicians use 30) and then moves above that level, and a "sell" signal when the Stochastic Oscillator rises above 80 (a few technicians use 70) and then falls below that level. The Stochastic Oscillator can remain above 80 (or below 20) for prolonged periods while the stock or index continues moving to higher (or lower) levels. If the stock (or market) is non-trending (moving sideways confined within upper and lower parallel boundaries), then trades based on overbought or oversold levels should produce the best results. However, if the market is trending upwards or downwards, then the Stochastic Oscillator can be used to enter trades in the direction of the trend. There are also more aggressive traders who consider it a "buy" signal when the blue line rises above the red line and a "sell" signal when it falls below it. Also, look for divergences. When the market is making a series of new highs and the Stochastic Oscillator is failing to surpass its previous highs, the oscillator is giving us a warning signal. The second chart is the Chande Momentum Oscillator. The use of the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) is similar to that of the Relative Strength Index (RSI). However, the Chande Momentum Oscillator measures momentum directly by combining data for both up and down days in the numerator of its equation (The RSI uses up days only in its numerator). In addition, the Chande Momentum Oscillator or CMO does not have any built-in smoothing that would obscure very short-term momentum extremes (RSI has such smoothing and tends to obscure these details). The dashed lines in the bottom chart of Chart 4 mark the -50 and +50 levels of the indicator. The heavy black line is the zero line. The Chande Momentum Oscillator indicates overbought (+50) and oversold (-50) conditions. For example, at –50 the downside momentum is 3 times the upside momentum. The Chande Momentum Oscillator can also be used to measure the degree to which the market is trending. The more extreme the CMO, the stronger the trend. A low CMO reading (close to "0") indicates the market is neutral or in a sideways trading range. The Chande Momentum Oscillator can help establish entry and exit points when used in conjunction with a trend-following indicator, such as a moving average. For example, if a moving average has turned positive, you could enter the market when the Chande Momentum Oscillator is advancing (the CMO, unlike a moving average, does not lag the market) and exit when it moves lower or when the moving average gives a sell signal. The moving average can give you the buy or sell bias and the CMO can function as your "trigger." Finally, look for divergences between the action of the Index and that of the CMO. For example, if the Index is making a new high (or low) and the Chande Momentum Oscillator is failing to surpass its previous high (or low), the CMO is "anticipating" a reversal in the Index. Return to the six charts. Back to Charts
Chart 5- On Balance Volume & Chaiken Money Flow. The top chart in cell 5 is the On Balance Volume created by Joe Granville. His idea was that by computing a running total of the volume, a person could see if money was flowing into or out of a security. His premise was that the OBV would precede price action. Smart money buying shares would show by an increase of OBV and the stock would respond by rising. Smart money selling, would result in a decrease of OBV and the stock would decline. If a stock rises or falls before the OBV, or if it moves in the opposite direction of the OBV, then the move is said to be non-confirmed, and it should be viewed with suspicion. Non-confirmations often occur at the end of an advance (where the stock is still rising but OBV is not) or at the end of a decline (where the stock is still declining but OBV is not). When a stock is making higher peaks on a chart, the OBV should also be making higher peaks (otherwise, there is a non-confirmation of the rising trend). The reverse is true of a declining trend. OBV that has a sideways pattern is considered "doubtful." However, if the OBV is doubtful for only two days and the stock resumes its previous trend, then it is assumed that the trend never changed. Many short-term traders use the OBV to trade short-term cycles. They look for breakouts of the OBV (a change from a declining or doubtful OBV to a rising OBV, for example). Another use is to view a change in direction of the On Balance Volume as a buy or sell signal, but only in the direction of the trend. For example, if the stock is above a rising 50-day moving average and declining or going sideways, then an upturn in the OBV would be a buy signal. The Money Flow Indicator attempts to measure money flowing in and out of a security. The movement of money into or out of the market can give us clues about the meaning of price movement. Look for divergence between the Chaiken Money Flow indicator and price action. If the price moves higher and Chaiken’s Money Flow indicator moves lower, the rise in prices is not supported by an influx of money, and the rally is likely to be short-lived. If Chaiken’s Money Flow is between zero and .10 (0 is marked by the horizontal red line and .10 is marked by the upper horizontal black line), then it is thought to be reflecting weak buying and it is not particularly bullish. However, Chaiken Money Flow readings above .10 are bullish. If Chaiken’s Money Flow is between zero and -.10 (the lower horizontal black line), then it is considered to be weak selling and it is not particularly bearish. Readings below -.10 are normally considered bearish. Readings of .20 are bullish (-.20 is bearish), and these levels are marked with heavy blue lines. Readings above .25 (the upper horizontal blue line) are very bullish and indicate higher prices are probably ahead. Readings below -.25 (the lowest blue horizontal line) are very bearish and indicate that lower prices are probably ahead. The flow of money often precedes price action. However, money flow and price action will sometimes diverge. When this happens, do not trust the current price action of the index or security to continue. When money persistently flows into a stock or market, expect growth (rising prices). Return to the six charts. Back to Charts Chart 6- MACD & S&P500. The top portion of the chart shows the daily MACD, a popular buy/sell indicator, as it applies to the S&P500. The MACD is the dark red line. The basic MACD rule is to sell when the MACD falls below the broken signal line and buy when it rises above its signal line. A crossing of the zero line is a confirmation of the signal. The MACD can give buy/sell indications in three ways: signal line crossovers (the indicator is bullish if it is above its broken signal line and bearish if it is below this line), overbought and oversold conditions (the MACD is in an Overbought/Oversold range when it pulls dramatically away from the broken line; when this occurs, it is likely that the S&P500 is overextending and will soon reverse direction), and divergences (a bearish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new lows while the S&P500 fails to reach new lows; bullish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new highs while the S&P500 fails to reach new highs (expect--these divergences are most significant if the market is overbought or oversold). The daily S&P500 is shown in the lower part of the chart. The dotted blue line is the 50-day moving average, and the purple line is the 20-day moving average. These are intermediate-term, and short-term trend indicators respectively. Return to the six charts. Back to Charts
Trading & Performance
Long ago we proved to our own satisfaction (by trading with real money) that to obtain gains of more than 50% a year it is not necessary to invest in options, currencies, commodities or even to take on the risk of using margin leverage. It can be done simply by buying and selling stock in a cash account. All you need is a good discipline (and that you actually follow your discipline). That is what this site is all about.
You must focus on cutting losses quickly, finding good setups, and looking for trigger events. When it is time to sell, do not talk yiourself out of it or "argue" with the evidence. It is not necessary to sit "glued" in front of your computer. Simply enter your trades and set your stop losses. Then, check your positions in the evening and update stop losses when necessary. Portfolio returns above 50% per year can be achieved by trading relatively high quality stocks priced above $5 in a cash account. People tend to confuse what it takes to gain 60% in a year in a portfolio with the annual gains obtained from individual stocks. For a portfolio to gain 50% in a year, an individual must invest in stocks that are rising much faster than an annualized rate of 50% during the time those stocks are in the portfolio. Why?
Many successful traders do well if 50% of their picks rise, though some have achieved success rates of 70% or more. In bad makets, less than 50% of a trader's picks may be successful. When a stock declines, it cancels out some of the gains achieved by other positions. A trader who gets a return of, say, 100% on his entire portfolio would likely have invested in many stocks that were rising at an annual rate of more than 200% during the time in which the trader held those stocks. In other words, they buy just before a surge in price or when the stock is already surging, but they may hold that position for only a week or a month (or however long the surge lasts).
Stocks rarely rise 200% or more per year, but many stocks will surge for a few weeks at an annualized rate of more than 200%. To achieve great performance, top traders look to be invested in stocks during the relatively short time in which they are surging. That takes discipline in timing and selection. Learn about setups to spend your time more efficiently and to make your time invested more productive. Examples of some setups can be found near the bottom of the "Stock Alerts" page. For more, we suggesrt that you read Question #10 on the Q&A page.
Notice: Several indicators/charts, previously on this page, have been moved to their own pages. You can access them by using the menu on the left side of your screen, or by clicking on the following links.
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