Web Site Directory
(A Descriptive Index)
Major concepts, indicators, and tools covered at this Web site
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Market Review and Indicator Status Report. Included in the report are Interest rate spread, McClellan Oscillator, Summation Index, Market Bias, Money Flow, Stochastic Oscillator, Chaiken Advance/Decline, Chaiken Volatility Indicator, Volatility Index, VIX, Chande Momentum Oscillator, MACD, resistances, supports. Taken together, these indicators can paint a general profile of the condition of the market and enable you to adjust your strategy in accordance with the market's near-term outlook. The day's market action at 5-minute intervals is posted here and so are charts of all the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. An R.C. Allen system perspective of the market is also here (with its "buy" and "sell" signals).
This hyperlink on the Home page is a "convenience link" to outside information. You Can Get Historical Data, Research, SEC Filings, Analyst Estimates, Blog Posts, discussions, events, resources, and financials.
Stock signals or alerts of R.C. Allen's triple moving average crossover strategy. Stocks with a "signal" are listed. Current daily reports.
Many Web sites display a list of stocks with their price changes for the day. However, we know of no sites that will provide a free list of up to 100 stocks that have had a significant price surge along wtith the volume change associated with each price surge. Find stocks starting new trends, breakouts through overhead resistance, selling climaxes, reversal patterns, and "watch list" candidates. Here, you can see if the volume surged or contracted (and by how much) when the price surged or declined.
There are more than 6 stock scanners on this Web site. The purpose of this particular scanner is to help you find stocks that are just beginning a new trend. It scans thousands of stocks using 6 dual moving average crossover systems with a spectrum of sensitivity levels, looking for crossover events in either direction. It generates an alert for each crossover, names the stock and gives its symbol, identifies the two moving averages that have crossed, identifies the direction of the crossover, gives price and volume surge information, and provides a Relative Strength (RSI) measurement. We use dual moving average crossovers in order maintain the detection sensitivity of the scanner while avoiding the large number of meaningless signals that usually occur when those signals are generated by the crossing of the closing price and a moving average. The system is like a finely woven fishing net that is cast in the sea. Instead of catching fish, it catches most emerging trends early in their development. In addition, we include a volume surge filter that reduces the odds of a whipsaw as well as several measurements that can be used for the same purpose.
Alerts focus on price momentum surges. These, especially if accompanied by volume surges, often precede a significant and sustained move. The top 50 stocks from our momentum scan are listed along with their "volume momentum." The list is updated daily.
We list the strongest 50 ETFs in rank order. Strategies & ways to build an ETF portfolio based on these lists are explained. Our strength rank algorithm (the same one used by The Valuator) goes far beyond the simple RSI used at many Web sites. The RSI will rank many stocks highly even when they have a terrible pattern context. They may have heavy resistance nearby, the high ranking may be due to a price surge that fits within the stock's "noise" pattern, or the stock may have had a minor rebound within an overall downtrend that remains intact. Our strength algorithm eliminates much of the "junk" that the RSI "thinks" is so wonderful. It finds the strongest of what's available in the universe it searches.
Our algorithms generate alerts for four moving averages (30-day, 50-day, 100-day, 150-day). In addition, alerts are generated for Donchian signals (when the 5-day moving average crosses the 20-day moving average. For example, a cross by the 5-day moving average of the closing price from below to above the 30-day moving average will result in the generation of a "30-Up" alert. A cross by the 5-day moving average of the closing price from above to below the 30-day moving average will result in the generation of a "30-Dn" alert. The 5-day average is used for crossovers to reduce false signals. The alerts are intended to draw attention to the fact that the crossover condition has been met. We also include an RSI measurement that can be useful in reducing the probability that a selection will "whipsaw" or reverse course immediately to generate the opposite signal. We generate a fresh list daily.
We find and list the strongest 100 stocks, and the list is updated every week. More frequent updates would be overkill, even for active traders, because many of the stocks have "persistent strength." If they are strong one day, they are likely to be strong the next (the link here will take you to the page where examples are shown). A list of 100 strong stocks should be more than enough to last a week. A strategy for building a portfolio based on these lists is illustrated. The strength rank algorithm used for this service is identical to the one used for The Valuator, and it is far superior to the relatively simplistic RSI used at many Web sites (The RSI is a quick and easy upload from data vendors. Most Web site operators do very little or no original research, and very few invest time and energy in the development of screening algorithms). The RSI can rank stocks highly even if they have a terrible pattern context. Our strength algorithm finds stocks with the strongest chart patterns.
We find and list in rank order the strongest 30 utilities, and the list is updated daily. Strategies for building a portfolio based on these lists are described. The strength rank algorithm used for this service is identical to the one used for The Valuator, and it is far superior to the relatively simplistic RSI used at many Web sites (The RSI is a quick and easy upload from data vendors. Most Web site operators do very little or no original research, and very few invest time and energy or even have the mathematical knowledge necessary to create more effective screening algorithms). The RSI can highly rank stocks even if they have a terrible pattern context. Our strength algorithm finds stocks with the strongest chart patterns.
Breakouts and Surges
This algorithm searches for a variety of patterns. For example, it might find an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern that has just had an upside breakout through the neckline. On the other hand, it might find a stock that has just had a surge in price and volume. Sometimes a stock found will have had a breakout a week before and the current "alert" looks belated. However, the alert may be the result of something else (a new gap up on an increase in volume, for example) and not be related in any way to the conditions that generated the earlier alert. This is for people who are experienced at interpreting chart patterns. If you need lines drawn on a chart and patterns explained to you before you can see them, this subscription is not for you.
Notes to visitors and subscribers, information about the timing of Web site updates, new features and content changes are posted here.
Here is where you can find free tutorials on trading strategies, stock investment, investment strategy, systems & tactics of buying and selling, stop-loss strategy, charts & indicators, support & resistance.
First, you get a very brief description of the product and its price. If you click on "More info," you get a more complete description and an image of the product. You can visit this area and poke around without apprehension. You won't be "tricked" into committing to a purchase without knowing it. If you do order, the place where you enter personal information is secure.
This section of the Web site requires a password for entry. Subscribers to The Valuator can download a spreadsheet that is sortable and access other information. Subscribers to StockAlerts get lists of stocks that have triggered various alert systems (they can get both "up" and "down" alerts).
Volatility Stop Losses
This is a discussion of volatility-based stop losses.
This tool is designed to work within an Excel environment. It automatically computes volatility-adjusted stop-losses and is easy to use. Stops includes a "Lab" where you can experiment with different settings to determine which settings match your risk tolerance. These experiments can help you determine how "abnormal" a stock's negative behavior must be (relative to its own "normal" behavior) before you will want to sell. The "Lab" charts include a red line that traces the position of the stop-loss. This line changes after you change various settings and hit the f-9 key. You simply adjust the settings until you find the volatility compensation settings that are just right for you. Enter those settings for a position and Stops will automatically compute and display volatility-adjusted stop losses for you as you enter date and price information. Place the stop order with your broker and your stock will be sold automatically if it hits that price. For those who prefer to use mental stops or stops based on closing prices, a "Stop!" sign also appears to alert you to the fact that the computed stop loss has been triggered (just in case you hadn't noticed). Stops provides 19 ways to compute a stop loss (volatility adjusted, ATR, fixed percentages, combinations of the two) relative to recent high, low, or close. Stops makes use of formulas derived from the work of Cynthia Kase, Thomas Bulkowski (see the September 2006 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities), and Perry Kaufman (see A Short Course In Technical Trading and New Trading Systems and Methods). It does the math for you. It also includes Fibonacci calculators. Stops is described at the end of the discussion on stop losses (see the navigation tab). Give a stock just enough wiggle-room to enable it to climb with normal fluctuations, but cut losses quickly on statistically significant declines.
Video on Stops
This video demonstrates volatility-adjusted stop losses, their placement, and a tool that calculates them automatically as the stock rises (see the description above). If your Firefox configuration does not play the video, try again with Internet Explorer. To leave the video without leaving the internet, click only once on the "x box" in the top right corner of the video display to close the video, then click on the back arrow of your browser.
Have a good reason to buy! Here are some new and powerful ways to evaluate a stock. This is an electronic "market letter" covering about 500 stocks, with several valuation models and fundamental & technical measurements that are Excel spreadsheet sortable. Which stocks are the most undervalued or overvalued and by how much? Which are showing the most consistent strength (measurements go far beyond RSI). The value of this measurement is hard to appreciate without seeing the charts of stocks selected by both approaches to measuring strength. This is one of the primary tools used by our traders. They buy these very strong consistent stocks on pullbacks. Which stocks generate the most analyst enthusiasm? Which have the lowest PE or PEG ratio? Which undervalued stocks are rising faster than most rising stocks? Top-ranked stocks are listed for strength, velocity, PEG, PE, etc., with trend direction, flags, star alerts, and follow-ups. Every stock cycles between being overpriced and underpriced. The Valuator plots eight positions in this cycle and displays where each stock is in its cycle. Is the stock "low and rising," "overpriced and falling," "high and rising," or is it at one of the five other points in its cycle as it swings up and down between being low and high then back again? PEs and PEGs are not based on last year's data, and they don't look ahead a full year. The first approach is absurd because last year's data is obsolete and has little bearing on what the company is doing now. The latter is based on pie-in-the-sky guesses about the distant future. Analysts don't do that very well. Instead, we use earnings projections for approximately 6 months ahead and combine these with about 6 months actual recently achieved results to generate our 1-year data. This data is the basis for our PEs and PEGs. We believe it is more reliable and realistic. The market also tends to look ahead about 6 months.
J. Welles Wilder developed the True Range and Average True Range concepts as a means of measuring volatility, and he introduced the concepts in his book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Among other things, he used the measurements in computing his stop loss placements. ATR Stops is a stop loss computing tool designed to work within an Excel environment. It doesn't require any advanced math on the part of the user. As with Stops, you only have to enter the stock's price data and the numbers 1, 2, or 3, to tell ATR Stops how to compute the stop loss. Stop losses can be computed relative to the high, low, or closing price. Unlike Stops, all its calculations are based on the Average True Range (and how you choose to modify it). It calculates stop losses for both long and short positions. This is another tool you could use to give a stock just enough wiggle-room to enable it to climb with normal fluctuations, but cut losses quickly on statistically significant declines. ATR Stops includes a "Lab" where you can experiment with different settings to determine which settings match your risk tolerance. These experiments can help you determine how "abnormal" a stock's negative behavior must be (relative to its own "normal" behavior) before you will want to sell. The "Lab" charts include a red line that traces the position of the stop-loss. This line changes as you change various settings (after each change you must hit the f-9 key to see the change reflected in the chart). You simply adjust the settings until you find the volatility compensation settings that are just right for you. Enter those settings for a position and Stops will automatically compute and display volatility-adjusted stop losses for you as you enter date and price information. Use the above link for more on the ATR Stop loss and for alternatives currently available. .
Scans thousands of stocks for various "setup" patterns that often precede a price increase (surge) or decline. These lists identify the stocks and the type of alert each is generating. The purpose of the alerts is to enable you to build "watch lists" of stocks ready for a price surge. A "setup" is a chart pattern that often culminates in a price surge. These illustrations should be of interest to most visitors to this site, even if they have no interest in subscribing to StockAlerts. It helps a person avoid non-performing "empty slots" in the portfolio. The idea is to fill those slots with stocks from the "watch list" when they start to make their move. Daily alerts are posted for subscribers. Use the "Stock Alerts" link for a description of what triggers each alert (Gaps, Bollinger Band Squeezes, etc.). The descriptions are near the bottom of that page.
Video #1 on The Valuator Video #2 on The Valuator
The videos make it easy to understand what The Valuator is all about in a small amount of time (see the description above and the following additional information here). The Valuator has some new and powerful ways to evaluate a stock. All stocks gyrate or swing above and below their current "fair value." Is the stock "low and rising," "overpriced and falling," "high and rising," or is it at one of the five other points in its cycle as it swings up and down between being low and high then back again? Which stocks are the most undervalued or overvalued and by how much? Which are showing the most consistent strength? Our measurements go far beyond RSI. The value of this measurement is hard to appreciate without seeing the charts of stocks selected by both approaches to strength. This is one of the primary tools used by our traders. They buy these very strong consistent stocks on pullbacks. If your Firefox configuration does not play the video, try again with Internet Explorer. To leave the video without leaving the internet, click only once on the "x box" in the top right corner of the video display to close the video, then click on the back arrow of your browser.
Stop Loss Probabilities
This is a discussion about the probability of a stop loss being triggered and the fact that you can shape volatility-adjusted stop losses to conform to your own investment time horizon and tolerance for risk. The discussion is Tutorial #24, but it is given a link here because many visitors would not know it exists otherwise.