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Index

Strategy System Discipline Tactics

Free tutorials on trading strategies, stock investment, investment strategy, systems & tactics of buying and selling, stop-loss strategy, charts & indicators, support & resistance.    

A single Strategy is not nearly enough.  You need several Strategies.  A single Discipline is not enough.  You need a variety of DisciplinesYou must develop your disciplines around flexibility.  The market changes constantly.  Its biases change.  At one time it favors momentum investors, and at another time it hammers them.  Your rules for buying and selling must be adaptive.  If you develop disciplines that are adaptive to the varying whims of the market, and your strategies are suitable to the prevailing market climate, you will prosper.  Consistent profitability in the market is not about how you "feel," or about the fact that a company has a great "story" and that its stock should go up.  Emotions have no place in the equation.  Study to learn tactics and tactical considerations.  For example, what are the implications of a "hanging man" candlestick formation after a long uptrend?  What tactics are worth considering in the placement of rising stop-losses relative to a rising trendline for a volatile stock as compared to a less volatile stock?  Remember that there is either a person or a computer on the other side of every trade you make.  That person or thing is betting that you are wrong.  What tactical difference would it make in the placement of your stop-loss if a stock's pattern suggests the stock is frequently "gunned" near the trendline?  A stock is "gunned" if a specialist sees a group of sell orders (perhaps stop-losses) just below a trendline and he forces the stock down by dumping some shares in order to buy up the shares offered for sale at the lower price so he can resell them later at a higher price.  This is more likely to happen if the stop loss orders for those shares are set too close to the stock's current price.  If this is a pattern for a particular stock, how would you approach the problem?  What tactics do you use to buy breakout stocks?  Do you buy on the breakout, wait for a pullback, or wait for a pullback and bounce?  Even though it takes time, work, and some losses to develope your skills as a trader, you will find that it can be a very interesting and even a fun way to make a living.  Think of it as the world's largest computer game.  The money in your account is how you keep score.  Even a beginner can hold his own if he is careful.  There are a lot of people in the market who have no discipline, strategy, or self-protection systems.  Protect your portfolio with a good stop-loss system.  Do your homework.  If you do these two things, you will be way ahead of most of the people in the market.  

Discipline, Strategy, and System  These three are the triumvirate that will lead you to success in the market.  Your overall "strategy" will be made up of various sub-strategies that define your general approaches to investing under various market conditions.  Will you look for breakouts, gaps, surges, use stop losses, or sell short?  Your system consists of the set of rules and procedures you will follow to carry out your strategy (an example would be the set of rules in R.C. Allen’s triple moving average system).  The meaning of "discipline" can also envelop the whole package or overall structural matrix of your enterprise.  However, for our purposes here, we will define discipline to be what holds your system and strategies together.  It is the persistence, care, and accuracy with which you implement your set of rules.  Without discipline, you will not follow your own rules because the market will defeat you psychologically.  Without the correct implementation of your system, you really are not in possession of an effectual strategy.  You may have a strategy of buying stocks that have certain behavioral characteristics.  However, no strategy is fail-proof and all people make mistakes.  Effective systems deal with possible failures.  At any given time, there should be a well-defined answer to the question, "How will you deal with each type of failure that could occur if you take that position?"

Discipline implies "teach" & "train."  You are not disciplined if you do not study to learn from your mistakes and modify your behavior accordingly.  Discipline means to govern.  You have no discipline until you learn to govern your emotions.  Discipline can involve chastening.  The market will do that for you if you do not exercise the other meanings of the word.  If you are disciplined, you will regulate your behavior so that you do not deviate from your planned procedures.  A Disciplined investor or trader will combine lessons the market has attempted to teach him with lessons gleaned from his past behavior to provide self-generated tutorials that will lead to success-generating behavior. 

Strategy suggests at least a general plan.  However, to be a consistent winner (which does not mean always winning) you need more than simply a generalized plan.  Successful stock market strategies are more complex than that.  You need a detailed blueprint that is designed to gain you an advantage over other participants in the market.  "Strategy" involves adapting means to desired ends.  To this end, real strategies must incorporate at least some general rules of behavior.  Think of your strategy as the skeleton of your enterprise.  Think of your "system" as the organs, muscle, and ligaments of your enterprise.  Your strategy maps out the general structure of your endeavor.  Your system gives life to it.

A "system" is more defined than a strategy.  That is, a system has many subsets of rules that address various contingencies.  Like the ligaments of the body, these subsets work in concert with each other to support the goals of the enterprise.  However, "system" often implies more than a set of rules.  The term may be expanded to include external support systems.  That is, the word may include the set of rules, tools, indicators, and formulas that tell the trader what market actions to take.  Top traders learn the rules of their system like a student of karate practices his katas (combinations of positions and movements) so that they become automatic responses to a combat situation.  Similarly, all the rules of your system must be learned so that your behavior becomes automatic.  Otherwise, the danger is that emotion will overrun your rules.  A so-called "system" without contingency rules is not a real system in the sense of being a money-making blueprint.   Without a system to give life to your strategy, your strategy is dead.

The following tutorials will vary widely in sophistication.  However, we will work on the basics at first.  We are aware that many visitors are beginners.  There is no particular order or progression as you move from one tutorial to the next.  We will simply discuss a variety of issues in a variety of ways.  Some of our content will be taken from Strategy Updates and other communications we had with clients when we were managing investment accounts.  Bear in mind that those accounts were not "trading" accounts.  However, we believe that "traders" and "investors" differ primarily in the length of their holding period and in the amount of risk they are willing to tolerate.  To us, holding on to a declining position after it has broken support involves more risk than selling it and moving on to something more promising.  "Traders" and "investors" can learn from each other.  They both must master the principles of buying and selling. 

We hope you find these discussions (they are actually small tutorials or lessons) to be informative.  Some of these are mini tutorials on various technical indicators that we have found useful and that we may refer to in our larger discussions, lessons, or tutorials.  We may add other indicators or expand on these over time.  We plan on adding descriptions of various trading techniques or strategies to the list of tutorials.     

Though we have been in business since 1988, this Web site is very new.  We just launched it well into this year. 
More tutorials are planned.  The pace at which we add new ones has been slowed because there are some high
priority issues that are taking up much of our attention right now.  Tutorials will be added as they are completed.
 
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Descriptive Index: Tutorial Links 
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Free Tutorial #1:
Is it better to hold a stock through its ups and downs or trade the short moves. What are some of the buy, sell, and hold tactical issues?

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Free Tutorial #2:

The market will "psych" you out of your stops.  Setting your stops on the basis of mathematical probabilities enables you to distance human emotions from the decision process.

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Free Tutorial #3:
Accumulation, advance, distribution, and decline. These are the four phases of a stock's cycle. What are the signs a person could look for that should influence his decisions?

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Free Tutorial #4: 
The moving average can be used to generate buy and sell signals. Here are the patterns that will help you decide whether you should buy, sell, or hold.

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Free Tutorial #5:
There will always be losers in your portfolio.  Keep enough stocks in your portfolio so that your return will reflect your discipline rather than the "luck of the draw."

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Free Tutorial #6:
There are too many ways to use The Valuator as a tool for disciplined investing to even begin to discuss them all here.  However, here are a few ideas.

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Free Tutorial #7:
While R.C. Allen’s 4-9-18-day moving average crossover system is very popular, another set of averages is likely to be more profitable most of the time.  Use a filter with any moving average crossover system to cut down on false signals.

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Free Tutorial #8:
Use of the Stochastic Oscillator, the Chaiken Advance/Decline Oscillator, and the Chande Momentum Oscillator. Explanations found here are a bit more detailed than at most other Web sites.

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Free Tutorial #9: 
The flow of money as measured by The Chaiken Money Flow Indicator can give clues about the meaning of price movement. Look for divergence between the indicator and price action.

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Free Tutorial #10: 
The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index used together, can be useful in evaluating the dynamics of the ebb and flow of the market, and in planning entry and exit points.

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Free Tutorial #11:
Check the spread between the yield of short-term treasuries and the yield of long-term treasury bonds to get clues about how to invest in the current interest rate environment.

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Free Tutorial #12:
Divergence between the market and the MACD, trigger line crossovers, and the distance between the MACD and its trigger line can all be used as decision-making tools.

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Free Tutorial #13:
The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) can be a great help in spotting trend changes.  It often gives an exit signal at or before the extreme price rather than after it.

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Free Tutorial #14:
The Market Bias Indicator (MBI) is useful in evaluating the general status of the market and how best to adapt strategically and tactically to the prevailing market environment.

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Free Tutorial #15:
Three "value" measurement systems give different perspectives. The RAM and RAMT look at earnings yield and interest rates.  The Historical Model looks at historical relationships between earnings and stock prices.

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Free Tutorial #16:
Three strategies are discussed. One is value-based and focuses on dividend yield, one is a growth strategy that concentrates on "strength," and one is a mutual fund strategy.

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Free Tutorial #17:
A conservative system based on "persistent internal strength."  The "snapshot measurements" of the RSI are too time-constrained and are far more likely to find stocks with an unattractive chart pattern.

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Free Tutorial #18:
No matter how well you plan or how well you screen, you will take stop loss hits.  If you plan well, the hit will be very small.

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Free Tutorial #19: 
A good strategy that uses a readily available composite of several valuation scores, a measurement for velocity, a sorting and filtering routine, and a simple stop loss system for protection.

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Free Tutorial #20:
The "Limited Loss Discipline" is quick to realize a loss (so it won’t become a bigger loss) but slow to realize a profit (so it can become a bigger profit).

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Free Tutorial #21:
Market decision-making is like weather forecasting.  Market and weather forecasters speak in terms of probabilities, not certainties. Each has many currents, crosscurrents, and high and low pressure fronts.

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Free Tutorial #22:
The introduction of the Disciplined Growth Strategy with its muli-layered contingency algorithms and style-transcendent robustness unlikely to be "trashed" by the next stylistic bias of the market.

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Free Tutorial #23:
Are you an "investor" or a "trader?"  It all comes down to your expected time horizon and rate of return.  Is your annual growth rate target 15% or 60%?

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Free Tutorial #24:
Why the triggering of a volatility-based stop loss is a matter of probabilities.  The Stops tool makes it possible to estimate the probability that such a stop loss will be triggered.

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Free Tutorial #25:
We have tested the sell side of several moving average crossover systems to see which is the most profitable. We are now sharing some of our findings.

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Free Tutorial #26:
During the transition from bear market to bull market, individual stocks are often quite choppy in their price action. Though the market is steadily rising, individual stocks keep breaking down with disconcerting frequency. Here are alternatives to leaving your money in cash.


Free Tutorial #27:
If you ignored the sell signals before your stock had a big drop, it is not too late to make a good decision. Judging a loss by its magnitude is an arbitrary approach to risk control. Here is a strategy that can not only help you decide whether to sell but also help you avoid those situations in the first place.

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Free Tutorial #28:
After a bear market and before a bull market begins in earnest, stocks often break down shortly after beginning a positive move. They break down quickly even while the market is rising. It is hard to find stocks that match the progress of the general market. Here is what investors can do.

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Free Tutorial #29:
There are two videos here that illustrate some stock alerts and "setups."  A "setup" is a cofiguration that often precedes a price surge or new trend.  These configurations can help a person buy at the right time--just before a significant move in the stock and at a low-risk entry point.   


Strategy Tip:
There is a new strategy tip at the bottom of the Home page.  Click on this link and scroll down.  

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Perhaps We Can Enhance Your Performance 

·     The Valuator does not report PE and PEG ratios based on last year's obsolete data.   Nor does it try to look ahead a full year (analysts are notoriously inaccurate when they try to estimate a year ahead).  Instead, the 1-year earnings estimates it uses for computing PE & PEG ratios look ahead only about 6 months (6 months past + 6 months future).  We believe this is far more accurate.  Also, the market tends to look ahead about six months. 
·     The Stops tool computes trailing volatility-adjusted stop losses that can be adjusted to match your tolerance for risk and investment time-horizon.  Let the stock have just enough room for its "normal" fluctuations as it climbs (each stock is different), but cut losses quickly when it declines more than is "normal" for that stock. 
·     StockAlerts can help you find stocks for your watchlist that are more likely to surge within a few days.

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