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Daily ETF Moving Average Cross Signals

Click here to see the list of ETFs we scan

Our ETF Moving Average Signal Generator

The purpose of this signal generator, is to alert an investor when a new trend occurs.   Moving average crossover systems are popular signal generators among both traders and investors because they can be used to get in at the beginning of the trend, be positioned to profit from most of the rise, and to get out early when the trend turns negative.  Moving average systems will not get you in at the bottom or out at the top.  However, they can help reduce risk and at the same time enable a person to lock in a significant portion of the gain when an ETF is in a rising trend.  Our system scans for crossovers using five dual moving average systems.  

Some like to buy when a stock's closing price crosses from below to above its 30-day moving average, and sell when it crosses from above to below its 30-day moving average.  These systems are particularly popular with those who invest in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) because ETFs are considered by most people to be a little less volatile than other stocks.  The thinking is that lower volatility would make them a little less prone to whipsaws.  The 30-day moving average is favored by many because it is sensitive enough to respond fairly quickly to a new trend.

Some investors prefer to use the 50-day moving average as a signal generator.  It catches intermediate-term trends well, and institutional investors tend to be buyers when a stock rises above its 50-day moving average.  Having institutional investors on your side is considered a real advantage because the large amounts of money they invest helps increase the stock's momentum in the direction indicated by the signal. 

Some technicians have written books that urge the use of the 150-day or 30-week moving average.  For example, Stan Weinstein highly recommends a 150-day moving average system in his book, Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets.  He writes, "Over the years, I've found that a 30-week moving average (MA) is the best one for long-term investors, while the 10-week MA is best for traders to use."  These are the 150-day and 50-day moving averages respectively.  Our own tests verify the usefulness of these moving averages. 

However, the crossover of any moving average by the closing price is notoriously subject to whipsaws (signals are often reversed the following day or soon after).  Many traders therefore require that the crossover be sustained for several days.  Alternatively, they might use a very short moving average versus the longer moving average.  In our algorithm, in order to cut down on whipsaws, a 5-day moving average cross of the longer moving average is used rather than a cross by the closing price.  We previously used a 3-day average rather than a 5-day average, but found that market volatility resulted in too many false signals with the 3-day moving average.  When we used the 3-day moving average we also required that the longer moving average be moving in the direction of the crossover before an alert would be generated.  For example, if the 3-day moving average crossed from below to above the 50-day moving average, the 50-day moving average would have to be rising before an alert would be generated, and so on.  The reason for this requirement was that if the longer moving average is moving in the opposite direction, the probability of a whipsaw is high, especially if the alert generating moving average is a 3-day moving average.  Therefore we switched to a 5-day moving average.  Also, because some traders and investors want to be aware of all crossovers so they can make the decision for themselves as to whether or not a crossover presents an opportunity, we dropped the requirement that the longer moving average be moving in the same direction as the crossover.  This can make the alerts more useful to more people.

For example, lets assume that the 5-day moving average has crossed from below to above the 50-day moving average.  If the 50-day moving average is declining at a very steep angle, a whipsaw is more likely than if the 50-day moving average were declining very slowly, approximately flat, or rising.  A short-seller might see such a crossover as an attractive opportunity to sell short (if the 50-day moving average is declining steeply).  On the other hand, if the 50-day moving average is declining more gradually (it appears to be slowing down its decline and may be about to level off), then a crossover by the 5-day moving average could give a buyer the alert he needs to get in much earlier than if the alert is not given until the 50-day moving average is rising.  Subscribers must note for themselves the direction and angle of the longer moving average in deciding if any particular alert is of sufficient interest to be acted upon. 

Our algorithms generate alerts for five moving averages (20-day, 30-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 150-day).  The first of these is actually a Donchian crossover system.   If the 5-day moving average crosses from below to above the 20-day moving average, a "20-Up" alert is generated, and so on.  

For example, a cross of the 5-day moving average of the closing price from below to above the 30-day moving average generates a "30-Up" alert.  A cross of the 5-day moving average of the closing price from above to below the 30-day moving average generates a "30-Dn" alert.  The alerts are intended to draw attention to the fact that the crossover condition has been met.  It will be up to you to determine whether or not you will buy or sell. 

The following is an example of how the lists are configured.  It is NOT a current list.  The number of ETFs listed varies (up to 90), depending on how many generated an alert.  Subscribers access the current list by clicking on the "Subscribers" tab on the left side of the screen, then by selecting "ETF Alerts."

Click the following link to read an article about volume and liquidity issues pertaining to ETFs, and our own comments about how we deal with those issues. ETF liquidity

Last Update: Monday, 12/11/17 (based on data acquired after the close of market) 
Name Sym Alerts Close Volume Vol Up % RSI
WISDOMTREE EURP QLY DIV GRWT EUDG.K 20-Dn      26.475          19,258 2900.8 47.8
ISHRS CURNCY HDG MSCI ACWI EX US HAWX.K 50-Up      26.9004          12,689 905.5 55.5
DIREXION DLY CSI 300 CHN A BR 1X CHAD.K 50-Dn      31.42            8,659 903.2 45.7
ASTA FUNDING ASFI.O 50-Dn     100-Dn     150-Dn      7.4            6,800 881.6 50.1
VALUESHARES INTRNTNL QNTV VAL IVAL.K 20-Up      32.48            6,056 814.1 52.9
ISHARES GLOBAL UTILITIES JXI 30-Dn      52.43          14,435 727.3 54.1
WILSHIRE MICRO CAP WMCR.K 20-Dn      34.77            4,403 611.6 53.7
ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS EWN 30-Up      31.71        179,557 594.5 58.1
POWERSHARES S&P SMALLCAP LOW VOL XSLV.K 20-Dn      46.71        131,417 542.9 46.5
FIRST TRUST NASDAQ GLBL AUTO IDX CARZ.O 50-Dn      41.7559            4,506 497.2 48.9
WISDOMTREE MANAGED FUTURES STRAT WDTI.K 30-Up     20-Up      39.58          26,961 408.0 57.1
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MSCI JAPAN EWV 20-Dn      26.87            3,080 395.2 41.3
SPDR S&P TELECOM XTL 20-Dn      69.41          10,038 369.2 55.1
VANECK VCTR URANM NUCLR ENRG NLR 20-Dn      53.81            1,312 327.2 54.5
SPDR BLMBRG BARCLY ISR SCR CP CBND.K 20-Up      32.295            5,404 282.9 49.8
ISHARES GOVT CREDIT BOND GBF 20-Up      114.21          19,893 280.5 52.1
GUGGENHEIM CURRENCY JAPANESE YEN FXY 30-Dn     50-Dn      84.55        100,023 259.2 42.9
ISHARES INDIA 50 INDY.O 50-Up      36.31        199,289 240.9 58.2
WISDOMTREE BRAZILIAN REAL STR BZF 150-Dn     20-Dn      18.27            9,281 222.5 42.1
ETF SERIES SOLN MSTR INCM HIPS.K 30-Dn      17.6086            3,382 179.4 52.2
GLOBAL X MSCI PORTUGAL PGAL.K 30-Up      12.155          52,204 173.5 50.6
WISDOM TREE INTERNA DVD EX FINAN DOO 30-Dn      43.0645          12,998 142.5 50.7
ETFMG Prime Mobile Payments IPAY.K 20-Up      34.65          77,366 135.2 58.4
INDEXIQ MERGER ARBITRAGE MNA 100-Dn      30.77          80,053 133.1 47.2
UNITED STATES BRENT OIL BNO 20-Up      17.435        163,449 126.0 63.0
DIREXION ZACKS MLP HGH INCM SHS ZMLP.K 30-Up      16.31          30,539 104.2 59.9
SPDR BLMBRG BRCLY INV GR FLTN FLRN.K 100-Dn      30.71        410,103 95.0 44.9
POWERSHARES DB OIL DBO 20-Up      9.8        575,995 87.6 58.9
FLEXSHS INTL QTY DIV DYN IND IQDY.K 100-Dn      27.77            7,651 85.3 48.6
DIR DAILY 7-10 YR TRSY BR 3X SHS TYO 50-Dn     20-Dn      13.9462            5,957 83.8 50.3
SPDR NUVEEN S&P HIGH YIELD MUNI HYMB.K 30-Dn      55.4          87,557 81.9 40.6
VANECK VECTORS VIETNAM VNM 20-Dn      16.5        200,103 79.2 48.9
PROSHARES ULTRA 7-10 YR TREASURY UST 20-Dn      57.75          22,736 75.3 45.9
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT SEMICOND SSG 50-Up      10.79          10,159 71.4 54.8
FRST TRST ISE GLB WND ENG INX FAN 20-Up      12.75          69,014 70.4 51.1
SPDR BLMBRG BRCLY INTL TRSRY BWX 20-Dn      28.21        465,994 63.4 48.9
ISHARES CORE MSCI PACIFIC IPAC.K 30-Up      59.64        146,583 61.0 56.9
ISHARES MSCI INDONESIA EIDO.K 30-Up     150-Up     20-Up      27.11        528,492 56.1 54.9
UBS ETRACS MTLY PAY 2XLEVERAGED LMLP.K 30-Up      15.71          10,751 55.2 55.9
UNITED STATES OIL USO 20-Up      11.6    15,586,141 52.2 58.4
ISHARES CALIFORNIA MUNI BOND CMF 100-Up      59.13          41,354 42.5 48.5
ISHARES MORN SMALL CAP GROWTH JKK 20-Dn      177.221            2,311 42.2 54.8
VANECK VECTR INDONESIA INDEX IDX 30-Up     50-Up     100-Up     150-Up     20-Up      24.14          16,815 36.5 56.8
ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAP EWL 50-Dn      34.84        741,169 36.3 52.5
GUGGENHEIM CURR CANADIAN DOLLAR FXC 150-Dn      76.71          44,118 36.1 41.7
DIREXION JAPAN BULL 3X SHARES JPNL.K 30-Up     20-Up      75.79          14,812 35.8 58.2
PROSHARES ULTRA TELECOMMUNICATNS LTL 30-Dn      41.25            3,898 35.6 44.8
ISHARES MSCI RUSSIA CAPPED ERUS.K 50-Up      34.42        337,071 35.0 55.3
GLOBAL X FUNDS SOCIAL MEDIA SOCL.O 50-Up      33.5          65,964 27.9 57.2
VANECK VECTORS BDC INCOME BIZD.K 30-Up      17.16          58,893 26.4 51.2
ISHARES US OIL EQUIP SER IEZ 30-Dn     50-Dn      33.83          79,022 25.0 54.7
ISHARES MSCI PHILIPPINES EPHE.K 150-Up      37.5        213,295 23.6 58.1
FIDELITY MSCI UTILITIES INDX FUTY.K 30-Dn      36.58          60,856 23.6 56.5
DIREXION DAILY DVP MRKTS BEAR 3X DPK 30-Dn      12.92            2,628 23.5 44.3
FIRST TRUST CLOUD COMPUTING SKYY.O 20-Up      45.67        148,534 23.5 62.6
SPDR ICE BOFAML CRSOVR BND CJNK.K 30-Up      26.55          22,836 21.5 49.1
INDEXIQ GLOBAL RESOURCES GRES.K 30-Dn      27.43          20,260 19.9 50.0
FIRST TRUST INTERNET INDEX CF FDN 30-Up      109.3        387,575 19.1 57.7
POWERSHARES ZACKS MICRO CAP PZI 50-Dn     20-Dn      19.13            2,465 18.0 46.2
ARES CAPITAL ARCC.O 20-Up      16.47     1,540,433 15.0 60.8
POWERSHARES PREFERRED PORTFOLIO PGX 150-Up      15.06     1,681,929 13.8 60.6
POWERSHARES S&P SMALL UTILI PORT PSCU.O 20-Dn      55.8698            5,245 13.7 52.0
GUGGENHEIM CURRENCY SWISS FRANC FXF 30-Dn      95.19          18,516 13.4 45.0
XTRACKERS MSCI JAP HDGD EQY DBJP.K 30-Up      44.03        436,405 9.1 60.4
SCHWAB INTERNATIONAL EQUITY SCHF.K 30-Up     20-Up      34.32     1,371,506 7.6 56.9
POWERSHARES CEF INC COMPOSITE PF PCEF.K 30-Up      23.75          92,246 7.1 52.1
ISHARES MSCI EAFE EFA 30-Up     20-Up      70.02    15,803,277 4.9 57.1
VANCK VECTR PRF SECRT EX FNCL PFXF.K 30-Up      19.92        145,562 2.3 53.3
ALPS INTL SECTOR DIVIDEND DOGS IDOG.K 50-Up     20-Up      28.32          49,184 1.2 52.2
POWERSHARES WILDERHILL PROGRSS PUW 20-Dn      26.2868            2,023 1.0 49.6
FIRST TRUST BRAZIL ALPHADEX FBZ.O 20-Dn      15.44            8,247 0.5 46.0

To see how current these lists are, click on New or Old?

The moving averages used are always simple moving averages.  Our tests show that they are, on average, at least as profitable as weighted or exponential moving averages.  See http://www.stockdisciplines/best-sell-strategy for more on this.  Although weighted and exponential averages tended to be faster, their average returns were less in our tests.  We include the change in volume that occurs on the day of the alert.  Crossovers are more significant if there is a surge in volume at the same time.  If there is a long list of alerts, a person might be interested only in those ETFs that also had a 50% or 100% surge in volume.  We also include the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the same reason.  It can be used in the same way as volume surges.  For example, a crossover with a surge in price would register a higher RSI than a crossover without a surge in price.  In other words, a short-term surge in the RSI could be helpful in evaluating the significance of the crossover.   


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