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Signals and Alerts
On this page we provide the output of a single alert system. For most traders, more is needed. If you regularly need fresh lists of stocks in a "setup" that have triggered an alert, perhaps you should click on "Stock Alerts" on the navigation bar (on the left-hand side of your screen) and review the discussion there. If all you want to see is a list of alerts currently included in the StockAlerts subscription, click on Current alert list. Alerts are alerts. They are not "buy" or "sell" signals. An alert means "analyze this," but a signal means "buy" or "sell." When one of our screens flashes an alert, it means only that certain setup conditions have been satisfied. It does not mean that all setup conditions are satisfied. Inasmuch as an alert means only that a single screening element has been satisfied, the logical response to an alert is to make a visual inspection of the stock’s chart. Look for pennants, ascending and descending triangles, cup-and-handle formations, head-and-shoulders formations, Bollinger band squeezes, double tops, double bottoms, gaps, resistance and support levels, and so on. An "alert" simply says "check this out to see if there is anything of interest here." Other alert descriptions and alert situations can be found elsewhere on this site. Here we highlight one alert strategy from among the many strategies we monitor. Specifically, we identify (listed below) those stocks in our stock universe that have generated a signal according to the 4-, 9-, and 18-day triple moving average crossover system. The stock list we scan includes thousands of stocks (see "Trading This System" below). Though many of the stocks covered by The Valuator are included in this master list (see explanations below), The Valuator's hand-picked list focuses more on high-quality stocks. The system featured here was made popular by R.C. Allen (How to Build A Fortune in Commodities) as an effective tool for trading both stocks and commodities. However, even R.C. Allen did not treat the signals generated by his system to be "buy" or "sell" signals in their own right and in isolation from their context. He simply argued that the commencement of a trend could be traded correctly by waiting for these averages to align themselves in a particular way. It may help to think of these averages as momentum currents. When the "momentum currents" build to a certain level, an alert is generated. There is a correct alignment for the commencement of a downtrend and another alignment for the commencement of an uptrend. Of course there are considerations other than these alignments. You should make a record of any of the following stocks that you think are worth monitoring because this list changes quickly. Our Stock-Scanner generates daily lists of alerts using a 4x9x18 crossover system and four other systems (the lists generated by that 4x9x18 system are different from the 4x9x18 system used here because some of the filtering elements are different). Unlike the free lists provided here, those lists do not have a defined limit on the number of alerts displayed. (The version of the discipline used here is defined in the blue text below the lists) . Please Note
Some people consider these alignments, when complete, to be buy and sell signals rather than "alerts." They act on them without question, and consider any false moves as merely the cost of doing business. We prefer to think of them as "alerts." A buy or sell may be called for immediately, but sometimes the "trigger event" does ont occur right away. Once an alert is generated, it may take up to a week or more for a "trigger event" (buy or sell signal) to develop. If the trigger event does not occur after two weeks, we think it is best to scratch the stock off the watch list. This procedure helps prevent your watch list from becoming cluttered with non-performing time-consumers. Either the stock moves or it doesn't. After two weeks, the verdict will be in. The stock may yet rise, but after two weeks time considerations become more important than waiting for a slow bloomer to do its thing. .
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This System and Systems in the StockAlerts Subscription
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Our StockAlerts subscription reports on the output of 6 different alert systems. At a given time, any of them may perform better than the one monitored here. For example, the Donchian 5x20 system, the R.C Allen 4x9x18 system, and the 5x10x20 variation on R.C Allen's system were all tested on thousands of stocks over a period of many years and under a variety of market conditions. At any given time and for a particular stock any one of these systems may significantly outperform the others. .
StockAlerts generates new lists of candidates only once a week. Some setups will work immediately after the alert is generated, but others will not. Setups often take time to "mature" to the point of giving the actual buy or sell signal. This "maturation" process may take up to two weeks. The creation of weekly lists generated by a variety of alert systems makes it possible for a person to observe the evolution of the setups and the general behavior of the stocks in each list. That, in turn, makes it possible to discover which type of setup, approach, and time-frame is really working well at that particular time. There will be times when none of the "setup" alerts reported by a particular alert system are attractive. In fact, an individual alert system can perform poorly for stretches of time. When that happens, even generating new lists every day can be of little help in getting good alerts. That's why we use a variety of alert systems. When one system isn't working, another may be generating wonderful alerts in which the stocks follow through with spectacular surges in price. Therefore, with a StockAlerts subscription, you have a much greater chance of finding something worthwhile than if you rely on the single system monitored here. Our hope is that you will eventually come to see the advantage of having an arsenal of "idea-generators" that can keep you well supplied with good ideas most of the time. The 4x9x18 crossover system featured here, fits in nicely with the other six systems. When it's working well, it can give earlier entries and exits than the 5x10x20 system. At other times, the somewhat slower approach of the 5x10x20 system yields better setups. We think the best results can be obtained by using all seven as part of a disciplined approach to finding stocks for your watch list that have the best performance potential at any given time. The seven systems complement each other. When one system is not working well, there is often another that is. Monitoring a variety of systems and the way their setups evolve is how a person can discover which system to place the most empahsis on at a given time. (The six alert systems of StockAlerts are described under "Explanations" on the "Stock Alerts" page)
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The reason we limit the number of alerts displayed here is so that people will not think this is all they need. It isn't, but people tend to think it is when the list is long. Also, these lists are not as rigorous as similar lists in StockAlerts and we do not want people to judge the quality of the StockAlerts lists by the lists on display here. The lists provided here are intended to be a kind of "teaser" to encourage you to "upgrade" to a subscription. Even so, you will probably find some pretty good ideas here occasionally. Consider them to be our gift to you for visiting our site.
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Updated For Next Market Opening As Shown in Table
(Tuesday's after-market updates are usually delayed. See the "Notes" page for timing of updates) Stocks generating an alert are first ranked in order of price. Then, a small number from the top of each list are posted.
Even if there are 100 alerts, no more than about 10 are displayed here. More information is on the "Notes" page. The StockAlerts subscription provides much more comprehensive lists and with a variety of alert systems. These lists do not require an associated volume surge as do some in the StockAlerts subscription (screening is less rigorous). .
All stocks priced at $5 or more that are in our database are included in this count. Trading This System Some traders use the signals generated by this system to buy and sell stocks for their portfolio. They interpret the "Up" alert to be a "Buy" signal and the "Dn" alert to be a "Sell" signal. In using this list, they would buy stocks when they appear in the top list (if the fundamentals of the company are good and if the overall stock pattern is acceptable), and sell them when they appear in the bottom list. Some warnings are in order if you intend to do this. These stocks are drawn from a list of thousands of stocks and ETFs. Many of the stocks on the list are not of the "quality" you will find in The Valuator. Apparently, some people think that Valuator stocks appearing on these lists can be identified by the fact that they are in lower case type. While that is often true, it is not always true. Some Valuator stocks are in upper case and some stocks in lower case are not Valuator stocks. We regret that we have not been consistent when porting various lists of stocks into the master list we are using here. If you want to stick with Valuator stocks, simply use The Valuator. It can provide plenty of watch-list candidates, and it also has all those fundamental metrics. You should not use any strategy or discipline unless it is suitable for you, does not exceed your tolerance for risk, and is appropriate to meet your investment objectives (a registered investment advisor or some other licensed professional can help you make this determination). Remember that no system is perfect. No system can "see" everything. This particular system will sometimes be slow to enter or exit a position (volatility-based stop-losses will often get a person out much sooner and enable the investor to lock in a larger portion of any gain). There is no guarantee that the stock will appear in the "Dn" alert list on the same day that the system generates a "Dn" alert. Though we hope to be able to refresh this list daily, we cannot guarantee that we will always succeed in doing so. It makes much more sense, therefore, to use these lists for their intended purpose. They are intended to be "alert" lists, not "buy" or "sell" lists. Therefore, if you intend to trade on the basis of signals generated here, you should have some independent method of tracking your positions. The Stops tool could be a big help with your sell signals, but you should also use charts to monitor the important moving averages for this discipline. For example, you could click on our link to "Yahoo! Charts" on our "Home" page. A nice feature of these charts is that you can see the actual high, low, and closing price of the stock for each day that you point to with your cursor. Because we are no longer registered investment advisors, we do not make personal investment recommendations. We do NOT recommend that any individual use this trading system for his or her own account. We also do not recommend AGAINST using this system. That is a matter to be decided on by you personally (perhaps with the help of a licensed professional securities consultant). If you use the system and the postings made here, you do so at your own risk.
The Alert System Used Here
EXPLANATIONS *The lists you will find here are not personal buy or sell recommendations. They are merely reports of stock activity and technical signals generated by a single specific discipline. The fact that this particular system is used here does not imply that we consider it to be the best trading system. We don't. We believe other alert systems give more reliable signals. However, this system is well-known and widely followed. Its advantage is that while it more often "jumps the gun" on a move, it does tend to give an earlier "heads up." That means its usefulness is enhanced if you learn not to jump just because a signal is generated. An early signal can be a real plus if you learn to reject any stock as a purchase candidate if its "setup" isn't quite right. The bottom line is that the earlier signal can allow you to enter the position earlier, but you have to be a little more careful. Proper alignment is not in itself a sufficient reason to buy or sell a stock. Look at the chart below, for example. While Allen's discipline is a popular trading system in its own right, the trading members of our company prefer to use it as only one of their screening tools. That is, its output notifies us of the recent emergence of certain technical conditions that make a stock interesting and a candidate for a closer look. We conduct further evaluation and analysis to determine if any of these stocks should be included on our "Watch List." In general, we watch for a setup, the absence of significant overhead resistance, and a "trigger event." The setup might be a stock that has been declining but has recently touched its rising 50-day moving average. The trigger event might be when it rebounds off of the 50-day moving average or rebounds and then shows a little follow-through price activity (preferably on increased volume). Another example of a setup might be a Bollinger Band "squeeze" that has lasted for awhile (the tighter and longer the squeeze, the better). A Bollinger "squeeze" results when volatility has been low. Periods of low volatility often precede a significant price surge. The trigger might be a price surge on increasing volume that lifts the stock above its upper Bollinger Band. For more information on the Bollinger Band squeeze, please click on "StockAlerts" on the navigation bar and read the explanation you will find there. With regard to this particular screen, a proper setup may exist if a stock is qualified to be listed on this page and if there is no reason to be apprehensive about the chart pattern. If there is overhead resistance immediately above the current price, there is reason to be apprehensive. If there is no resistance there, the trigger event might be a follow-through price surge on increasing volume. If the resistance is there, we might still consider it to be a "setup" but modify the trigger event. For example, we might consider an acceptable trigger event to be a follow-through price surge on increasing volume that takes the stock through that resistance. Some experienced traders would then wait for a subsequent test of support at the previous level of resistance and then a resumption of the up-trend. Instead of using Allen's system to define the setup, some use it to define the trigger event. In that case, the trader would look for good setups (a Bollinger squeeze with penetration of upper band, for example). These setups would have a context that is attractive (they would avoid poor pattern formations and situations where there is overhead resistance just above the current price). Then, they would wait for this discipline to give the final go-ahead. (Note: A discussion of the meaning of "support" and "resistance" can be found by clicking on "Free Tutorials" on the navigation bar and scrolling down to the section titled "Charts." Read all of that section.) StockAlerts focuses on 6 very important alert systems that together generate 11 alerts (6 Up alerts and 5 Dn alerts) and lists of stocks that have triggered any of these alerts are posted for subscribers every week (a monthly version is also available). The Valuator also provides watch-list candidates. Those publications have many more "Watch-List" candidates than you will find here (The Valuator, for example, can be ranked in each of 7 columns (best PE, best PEG, best Value, greatest Strength, and so on). The "Strength" algorithm alone in The Valuator provides a wonderful list of potential candidates. It is far mor powerful than the simplistic RSI (Relative Strength) used at most Web sites. Each measurement can be ranked and the top 50 or 100 out of about 500 stocks can be scanned for attractive setups and possible inclusion in a "watch list." . If you are using IE8 for a browser and you are annoyed by the "Do you want to view only the webpage content that was delivered securely?" message, go to our "Notes" page for instructions on turning off the messages. Create A Shortcut To Our Web site Look at our URL in your browser. Notice that just to the left of our URL is a small picture. In Internet Explorer it is usually an 'e' but it may be some other picture. Click on this small image and drag it to your desktop. This will create a shortcut to our Web site on your desktop. See FAQs if you need additional help. Links To Other Places On This Web Site Stop Losses Stops Products The Valuator StockAlerts Trading Tools About Us Contact Us Fees & Refunds Links Index . All pages on this Web site are protected by copyright Copyright 2010 by Stock Disciplines, LLC No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form by any means. .
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"But thou shalt remember the Lord thy God: for it is he that giveth thee power to get wealth." Deut. 8:18
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